美罢免劳工统计局长后，首个重要数据再遭质疑：样本缺失、数据缩水、人员短缺，7月CPI还能信吗？

Group 1 - The core CPI data for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding the forecast of 3% [2] - This data is considered crucial as it may directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in September, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets [2][24] - The recent changes in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) leadership and data collection methods have raised concerns about the reliability of economic data, particularly in light of the new tariff policies impacting consumer prices [2][6] Group 2 - The BLS has reduced its sampling range for CPI data collection, halting price collection in specific cities and temporarily suspending about 15% of price samples across 72 other survey areas [4][5] - These adjustments are intended to align the survey workload with available resources, but they may increase monthly volatility in price indices for the affected cities or categories [5][10] - The BLS is facing significant challenges due to personnel shortages and budget cuts, which have led to a reduction in data collection capabilities and raised concerns about the accuracy of economic indicators [7][8][10] Group 3 - The methodology for generating CPI data relies on extensive price sampling, with BLS collecting around 100,000 price samples monthly from various cities [13] - Due to the reduced sampling, the reliance on imputation methods to fill data gaps has increased, potentially compromising the quality and accuracy of the CPI data [16][18] - Historical simulations suggest that while the overall national CPI may remain stable, the reliability of localized data could decline, leading to increased volatility in specific indices [18][20] Group 4 - The credibility of CPI data is critical for monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve relies on it to assess inflation and make interest rate decisions [24] - A decline in the reliability of CPI data could undermine the effectiveness of economic policies and erode public trust in government statistics [24][25] - Experts warn that the ongoing challenges faced by the BLS could impair the ability of policymakers to analyze economic conditions accurately and formulate appropriate responses [25]