配置需求旺盛 债市仍处于“顺风期”

Group 1 - The bond market has recently experienced a slowdown in its upward trend, with some maturities undergoing slight adjustments. Market sentiment has turned cautious as interest rates reached previous lows, leading to a shift towards a more volatile market environment. However, favorable conditions for the bond market remain largely unchanged due to stable fundamentals and a loose funding environment [1][3]. - Since August, bond market yields have shown a slowdown in their decline, with some maturities experiencing rebounds. Long-term bonds have outperformed short-term ones. As of August 12, the yield on 1-year government bonds was 1.81%, up 12 basis points from the August low, while the 10-year government bond yield remained stable between 2.72% and 2.74% [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that the favorable environment for the bond market has not significantly changed, with market interest rates expected to remain low. Economic recovery momentum is still uncertain, and credit expansion appears unstable, which does not currently impact the bond market's trajectory [3]. Group 2 - Several institutions suggest that increasing allocations to medium- to long-term bonds may be a primary source of excess returns in the second half of the year. The 5-year bond maturity is considered to have greater elasticity compared to others [4]. - The current funding environment remains supportive for the bond market, with a low likelihood of significant tightening in the short term. This is bolstered by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies aimed at maintaining a loose funding environment [3].