多方合力稳经济 下半年增量政策落地可期

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to accelerate its recovery in the second half of 2022, driven by effective fiscal and monetary policies, despite facing challenges from the pandemic and international economic instability [1][3]. Economic Recovery - The consensus is forming around the idea that China's economy will rebound in the latter half of 2022, supported by a series of robust economic policies [3]. - The World Bank's report indicates that strong fiscal and monetary policies will help stimulate economic growth in the second half [3]. - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2022 is projected to be 2.7%, with expectations for the second half to reach 6.4%, leading to an annual growth rate of approximately 4.7% [3]. Policy Measures - A comprehensive set of policies has been implemented to stabilize the economy, with over 20 provinces and cities introducing local measures to support economic recovery [2]. - Key focus areas include project initiation, investment expansion, and boosting domestic demand [2]. - Experts suggest that significant fiscal and monetary stimulus measures should be announced to support economic growth [5]. Sectoral Insights - High-frequency data indicates improvements in economic indicators, with significant recovery in production and consumption, including a 71.4% increase in average daily sales of commercial housing in major cities from early June compared to May [2]. - The retail market for passenger vehicles saw a 39% year-on-year increase in daily sales during the third week of June, with a 55% rise compared to May [2]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the economic recovery will gain momentum in the second half of the year, with infrastructure, exports, and consumption expected to drive growth [3]. - The implementation of structural policies aimed at consumption, investment, and industry is recommended to ensure a robust recovery [5].