Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of the market liquidity is attributed to the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, leading to a self-implemented "interest rate cut" effect in the market [1][2][3]. Monetary Policy - Since April, major money market interest rates have significantly declined, with the 7-day bond repurchase rate (DR007) dropping below 2%, reaching a low of 1.54% in late April, the lowest since 2021 [2]. - The average monthly values for DR007 and the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rates in April were 1.82% and 2.48%, respectively, both lower than the central bank's policy rates by 28 and 37 basis points [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented various measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut and special relending tools, to maintain reasonable liquidity [3][5]. Fiscal Policy - The acceleration of fiscal spending is evident, with the general public budget expenditure reaching 7.24 trillion yuan by mid-April, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [4]. - Tax reduction policies have been expedited, with 625.6 billion yuan in tax refunds processed since April [4]. - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate, potentially becoming a short-term liquidity factor, with a total of 3.65 trillion yuan in new special bond quotas allocated for project investments [6]. Market Outlook - The liquidity environment is expected to remain moderately loose, with no significant tightening anticipated in May, despite the potential for increased local bond issuance [5][7]. - Analysts predict that the PBOC will maintain stable liquidity provision in May, with fiscal fund disbursements expected to be at least as high as in April [6][7]. - Overall, the market is likely to experience a continued low interest rate environment, although further declines may be limited [7].
货币财政政策齐发力 资金面保持宽松确定性强
Xin Hua Wang·2025-08-12 06:27