Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery of the RMB against the USD is attributed to domestic economic stabilization and supportive policies, alongside a decline in the USD index, which alleviates depreciation pressure on the RMB [1][2][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Recovery - The onshore and offshore RMB against the USD have both recovered above the 6.7 mark, with the onshore rate closing at 6.6737 on May 25, following a low of 6.7898 on May 13 [1][2]. - The RMB's recovery is supported by the gradual easing of local COVID-19 restrictions and the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, which have boosted market confidence [2][4]. Group 2: USD Index Dynamics - The USD index peaked at over 105 on May 13 but has since declined to around 102, influenced by concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession [4][5]. - Recent economic indicators, such as the New York Fed manufacturing PMI and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, have shown significant declines, indicating downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stability - Market participants are generally rational regarding recent RMB fluctuations, with no signs of panic in the foreign exchange market, reflecting a normal state of market volatility [3][4]. - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the long term, primarily driven by domestic fundamentals, despite short-term fluctuations influenced by external factors [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term predictions suggest a wide range of fluctuations for the RMB, influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and potential interest rate hikes [6]. - The recent measures by the foreign exchange bureau aim to enhance the management of foreign exchange risks for enterprises, promoting a risk-neutral approach to currency management [7].
人民币对美元汇率6.7关口失而复得 市场交易行为依然理性有序
Xin Hua Wang·2025-08-12 06:26