节后首日人民币中间价大涨404点

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar reflects improved economic expectations in China due to the control of the pandemic and the anticipated economic rebound [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On June 6, the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 6.6691, an increase of 404 basis points [1]. - The onshore RMB closed at 6.6457 against the US dollar, rising by 293 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB had already shown signs of recovery before the Dragon Boat Festival, with the onshore rate increasing by 191 basis points on June 2 and the offshore rate rising by 442 basis points to 6.6540 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB - Analysts attribute the recent RMB appreciation to short-term trading factors and the overall improvement in economic growth expectations as the pandemic situation stabilizes [1]. - The trade surplus and net inflows from direct investment, along with increased private foreign exchange asset holdings, provide a solid foundation for maintaining RMB stability [2]. - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that the economic recovery momentum is strengthening, supported by effective policies at both central and local levels [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a two-way fluctuation trend based on reasonable equilibrium [2]. - The external environment, including a slowdown in US inflation and concerns about the US economy, is contributing to a recent decline in the US dollar [2]. - Continued foreign investment in RMB assets is expected due to stable returns, further supporting the currency's value [2].