“靶向”支持力度加大 降准降息仍有空间

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the Federal Reserve's unexpected tightening and imported inflation pressure on China's monetary policy is significant, with potential for further rate cuts and the introduction of new tools to support economic stability and assist enterprises [1] Group 1: Domestic and External Factors - Domestic inflation is expected to remain moderate, providing room for monetary policy adjustments, while the spillover effects of the Fed's rate hikes have peaked [2] - The overall inflation pressure in China is manageable despite structural price increases in commodities and tight supply-demand conditions in some agricultural products [2] - The focus of monetary policy will remain on stabilizing growth and ensuring adequate liquidity to support the real economy [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The impact of the potential interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is diminishing, and a temporary interest rate inversion will not hinder macroeconomic policy [3] - There is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, contingent on economic performance [4] - The likelihood of a decline in the 5-year LPR is higher than that of the 1-year LPR, as the latter does not show strong necessity for a decrease [5] Group 3: Policy Tools and Measures - There is a need for additional policy tools to address uncertainties, with potential for new structural tools to be introduced [6] - Historical precedents suggest that monetary policy tools can extend beyond traditional measures like RRR cuts and interest rate reductions [7] - The People's Bank of China may consider reintroducing tools like the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) to provide stable long-term funding for specific sectors [7]