Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-13 00:15Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while the profit growth rate for Hong Kong stocks in the first half of 2025 is expected to slow down year-on-year, sectors such as retail, education, diversified finance, and gaming are anticipated to see continued profit growth [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The earnings report season in mid to late August will be a critical point for the Hong Kong stock market's performance [1] - Since the end of July, the A/H premium has slightly expanded, suggesting a shift in investment strategies that will consider company fundamentals, chip structure, and historical discount rates of H-shares [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to benefit certain sectors, particularly those facing overcapacity and price/profit pressures in resource and service industries [1] Group 2: Capital Flows - As of August 8, net inflows from southbound funds have exceeded 90 billion HKD, indicating a significant increase in retail investor participation [1] - The recent surge in net subscriptions for ETFs further reflects the heightened engagement of retail investors in the market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming earnings season will be pivotal in determining whether the Hong Kong stock market can maintain its momentum, transitioning from liquidity-driven to performance-driven and policy-validated phases [1] - Companies that exceed earnings expectations and provide upward guidance are likely to continue benefiting in this environment [1] - Marginal changes in "anti-involution" policies will become a core variable affecting pricing in relevant industries [1]