Toast Shares Tumble Despite Strong Outlook. Should Investors Buy the Stock on the Dip?

Core Viewpoint - Toast is experiencing strong growth and market share gains, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite a recent dip in stock price [1][10]. Group 1: Quarterly Performance - In Q2, Toast reported a 25% increase in total revenue, reaching $1.55 billion, with subscription revenue rising 37% to $227 million and financial technology revenue increasing by 25% [5]. - The company's gross payment volume (GPV) grew by 23% to $49.9 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) increased from $0.02 to $0.13 [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA surged 75% from $92 million a year ago to $161 million [6]. Group 2: Market Expansion - Toast added a record 8,500 net new locations in Q2, totaling approximately 148,000 locations, representing a 24% year-over-year increase [2]. - The company now serves over 10,000 locations in newer segments, including large-scale chains and international markets, having recently launched in Australia [3]. - Toast is gaining market share, particularly in its top 10 markets, where it has over 30% penetration [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Toast raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, projecting subscription services and fintech gross profit to be between $1.815 billion and $1.835 billion, indicating 28% to 29% growth [7][8]. - For Q3, the company anticipates subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit to grow by 23% to 26%, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $140 million and $150 million [8]. Group 4: Competitive Position - Toast is becoming a clear market leader in the local restaurant technology space, with significant growth potential in enterprise chain restaurants, food retailers, and international markets [11]. - The company's innovative technology is designed to help restaurant customers drive sales and operate more efficiently, benefiting Toast through its payment processing platform [10]. Group 5: Valuation - The best way to value Toast is based on its annual recurring revenue (ARR), projected to reach around $2.1 billion by 2025, with the stock trading at an 11.5 times enterprise value-to-ARR multiple, which is considered reasonable given its approximately 30% ARR growth [12].