这个数据让股市爆发让美元跳水，生产流程却有了重要变化，被质疑偏差明显，还能信吗？

Group 1 - The core CPI data for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding the forecast of 3% [1] - The release of this CPI data has led traders to increase bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, resulting in a sharp decline in the dollar and a rise of over 1% in major U.S. stock indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching historical highs [1][2] Group 2 - The importance of the CPI data is heightened due to its role as a "key gauge" of the impact of new tariff policies on consumer spending, which may directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The data collection process has faced significant challenges, including a reduction in sampling scope and reliance on estimation methods due to budget cuts and personnel shortages at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [5][7] - The BLS has reduced its sampling range, halting price collection in certain cities and temporarily suspending data collection in about 15% of surveyed areas, raising concerns about the accuracy and reliability of the CPI data [5][8] Group 3 - The BLS is experiencing internal challenges, including staff shortages and budget cuts, which have led to a significant reduction in the number of data collection points and increased reliance on estimation methods for CPI calculations [7][8] - The BLS's ability to provide reliable economic data is being questioned, as the agency has lost about 15% of its workforce since the beginning of the year, and budget proposals suggest further cuts [8][20] - The credibility of the CPI data is under scrutiny, with experts warning that the reduction in sampling and increased reliance on estimation could lead to greater volatility and inaccuracies in the reported inflation figures [15][21] Group 4 - The current CPI data's reliability is debated, with historical simulations suggesting minimal impact on national inflation rates, but concerns remain about the accuracy of localized data due to reduced sampling [15][16] - Experts express caution regarding the future quality of CPI data, indicating that ongoing budget and personnel cuts will likely lead to a decline in data accuracy and reliability [17][21] - The implications of compromised CPI data quality extend to monetary policy and social welfare programs, as many federal benefits are tied to inflation metrics, potentially affecting economic decision-making and public trust [20][21]