通胀降温巩固9月降息预期，金价短期波动或加剧

Core Insights - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI year-on-year remained at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] - Following the data release, traders adjusted their bets on a September rate cut, with the probability now at 95% [1] Market Reactions - After the CPI data was released, COMEX gold futures saw a slight decline of 0.15%, closing at $3399.60 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.39%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.06% [1] Analysis and Outlook - The moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the anticipation of a September rate cut [1] - Concerns regarding data quality and upward pressure on core CPI suggest that investors should remain cautious [1] - Short-term market volatility may increase, but the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]