日本新发10年期国债全天无交易，为2023年3月以来首次

Group 1 - Japan's newly issued 10-year government bonds had no transactions for the first time since March 27, 2023, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the global market and significant rise in yields, particularly for long-term bonds [1] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to implement a quantitative tightening (QT) plan starting August 2024, which will reduce its total government bond holdings by 7%-8% by March 2026 and 16%-17% by March 2027, indicating a slowdown in the pace of bond purchases [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the issuance of long-term government bonds by 3.2 trillion yen, which is anticipated to alleviate concerns regarding market liquidity [1] Group 2 - As liquidity in the government bond market improves, short-term declines in Japanese bond yields and a depreciation phase for the yen are expected, with the 10-year bond yield having already decreased by 15 basis points from its peak in May, with potential for an additional 15-30 basis points decline [2] - The volatility of the yen is returning, and with the end of previous carry trade unwinding, the yen's safe-haven appeal is diminishing, as the market shifts towards a risk-off sentiment, pushing the USD/JPY towards the resistance level of 150 [2] - In the medium term, continued interest rate hikes and QT are expected to support a rebound in the yen and an eventual rise in Japanese bond yields, with the 10-year bond yield potentially reaching a central level of 1.88% [4]