美国7月CPI同比涨幅低于预期 美债收益率盘中跳水

Core Insights - The July inflation data in the U.S. showed a moderate performance, with the CPI rising 2.7% year-on-year, matching June's rate and falling short of market expectations of 2.8% [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing both June's 2.9% and market predictions of 3% [1][3] - The market maintains expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, with a 90.1% probability for a 25 basis point cut [3] Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI for July rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, lower than June's 0.3% [1] - The core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since January [1][3] - Housing costs were a significant driver of the CPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% [1] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields experienced volatility, with the 2-year yield dropping to 3.73% and the 10-year yield stabilizing at 4.29% [1] - Traders are betting on three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a low probability of maintaining rates in September [3] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that while tariff-related price increases have not been significant, service prices are rebounding, indicating challenges in controlling inflation [2] - UBS noted that tariff impacts are slowly transmitting to the CPI, primarily affecting goods, while inflation pressures appear manageable [3] - The overall inflation trend is expected to enter a structural upward phase, with core CPI remaining above the Fed's 2% target [3] Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising alarms about the fiscal imbalance and potential for a financial crisis if corrective actions are not taken [4]