中信证券：下半年中国出口仍有望实现2.5%的正增长

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in domestic economic growth and ongoing trade frictions are driving Chinese companies to seek opportunities abroad, marking the transition to the 2.0 era of overseas expansion [1] - Two new trends in overseas expansion are identified: the normalization of transshipment trade and diversification of regional layouts, which are essential for companies to adapt to tariff impacts [1] - High-tech products with rapidly increasing domestic production rates may create sufficient price advantages to counteract tariff effects, while traditional products can explore domestic upgrades and technology improvements to reduce costs and enhance efficiency [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic impact of these trends is expected to support export growth, with estimates suggesting that accelerated overseas expansion, technological advancements, and diversified trade layouts could contribute an additional 3-5 percentage points to export growth [1] - The forecast for the second half of the year indicates that China's exports are likely to achieve a positive growth rate of 2.5% [1]