Core Viewpoint - The recent strong upward trend in coking coal futures indicates a tightening supply-demand balance, with potential for further price increases due to ongoing market dynamics [6] Supply - As of August 7, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 651,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [3] - The average daily coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 468,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%, leading to a total production of 1,119,000 tons per day, which is a week-on-week increase of 0.1% [3] Demand - As of August 7, the average daily pig iron output was 2,403,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.75%, an increase of 0.29% week-on-week [4] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.09%, a decrease of 0.15% week-on-week [4] - The profitability rate for steel mills was 68.41%, an increase of 3.03% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of August 7, the total coking coal inventory was 9.626 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 86,000 tons [5] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 697,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 39,000 tons [5] - The inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.193 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 74,000 tons [5] - Port inventory was 2.736 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 27,000 tons [5] Price Trends - As of August 12, coking coal futures showed strong upward movement, with the near-month 2509 contract rising by 69.5 (+4.19%) to 1,730.0 and the main 2601 contract rising by 78.0 (+4.50%) to 1,812.0 [1] - The fifth round of price increases for coking coal was implemented on August 4, with a range of 50-55 yuan/ton, and the sixth round initiated on August 8 [1][6] - Current prices for premium wet quenching metallurgical coke are reported at 1,290 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke at 1,530 yuan/ton after the recent price adjustments [6] Market Outlook - The supply side is constrained due to slower-than-expected coal mine restarts, while demand remains supported by downstream needs despite a slight decrease in pig iron production [6] - The overall inventory levels are moderate, with active destocking at coking plants and steel mills, while port inventories have slightly increased [6] - The market anticipates further price increases for coking coal due to tight supply-demand conditions and proactive restocking by downstream steel mills [6]
焦炭：主流焦化厂第六轮提涨启动 焦化利润有所修复 仍有提涨预期
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-13 02:07