8月13日白银早评：市场对降息仍持乐观态度 白银行情震荡拉升

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the silver market are influenced by the U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions, with a notable increase in silver prices following the release of moderate inflation data [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 98.02, while spot silver opened at $37.88/oz and is currently around $37.98/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9188 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9215 CNY/kg [1]. - On August 12, the dollar index fell by 0.43% to close at 98.07, while spot silver rose by 0.81% to $37.91/oz. This increase is attributed to the moderate rise in U.S. inflation for July, which supports the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1]. ETF Holdings - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased to 15099.56 tons, up by 40.96 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. July CPI year-on-year remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1%. Following this data, traders increased their bets on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin noted potential pressures on inflation and unemployment, while Kansas Fed President George stated that tariffs have limited impact on inflation, suggesting a reason to maintain current policy rather than pursue rate cuts [3]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $37.59, experienced a dip to a low of $37.486, and then saw a strong rally, reaching a high of $38.015 before closing at $37.9. The market is expected to target levels of $38.1, $38.3, and $38.5 with a stop loss at $37.5 [4].