商务部对加拿大进口油菜籽反倾销初裁 菜系期货做多情绪高涨

Core Viewpoint - The preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations against imported canola seeds from Canada will impose a deposit rate of 75.8% on all Canadian companies starting from August 14, 2025, which is expected to significantly tighten canola supply and increase prices in downstream products like canola oil and meal [1][2]. Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations against Canadian canola seeds, imposing a deposit rate of 75.8% on imports [1]. - As of March 2025, China has already imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, which, combined with the anti-dumping ruling, may lead to a substantial reduction in canola supply [1]. - Following the announcement, the canola futures market experienced a surge, with significant increases in canola oil and meal futures prices [1]. Group 2 - Domestic canola prices are expected to trend strongly due to tightening import expectations, with recent analysis indicating that the near-term warehouse issues for canola meal have eased, leading to accelerated inventory depletion in the futures market [2]. - The 75.8% deposit rate translates to a direct increase in import costs, which will have a considerable impact on the overall supply of canola products in the future [2]. - The anti-dumping tariffs are likely to create upward price pressure on domestic canola products in the short term [2].