美国7月CPI上涨 核心通胀抬头推高美联储9月降息预期

Group 1 - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-on-month, a slowdown from June's 0.3% increase, aligning with market expectations. Year-on-year, CPI increased by 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8% [1][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year increase reached 3.1%, exceeding the anticipated 3.0% [1][3] - The overall CPI data indicates moderate inflationary pressure, alleviating previous market concerns about tariffs causing a sharp rise in inflation [3][4] Group 2 - Specific categories such as medical services, airline tickets, entertainment, household goods, and used cars saw price increases in July, while hotel accommodations and communication services experienced declines [3] - The largest price increases were observed in fuel oil and transportation costs, while gasoline and household food costs decreased month-on-month. The housing index rose by 0.2%, with both owners' equivalent rent and rent indices increasing by 0.3% [3] - Economists noted that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices takes time to manifest, with some retailers stockpiling inventory to mitigate the effects and maintain stable prices [4] Group 3 - Following the CPI data release, financial markets rapidly increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 95% probability of a rate cut anticipated in the September meeting [4] - Despite a slight rebound in core inflation, it is viewed as insufficient to alter the Federal Reserve's direction towards a loose monetary policy [4]