加菜籽反倾销调查初审结果落地 菜籽油仍偏强震荡

Core Viewpoints - The recent surge in canola oil futures, with a peak at 10,333.00 yuan and a current price of 10,085.00 yuan, indicates a strong market sentiment [1] - The preliminary anti-dumping investigation results on Canadian canola seeds will impose a 75.8% deposit on imports, significantly reducing profit margins and potentially decreasing import volumes [1] - The domestic canola oil market is expected to experience a strong upward trend due to limited alternative sources and high consumption during the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Longjiang Futures predicts that canola oil contracts for September and January will continue to show strong fluctuations in the short term [1] - The anti-dumping measures are likely to hinder the import of Canadian canola seeds post-August 14, leading to a further decline in import volumes already reduced year-on-year [1] - The current high inventory levels of domestic canola oil may accelerate depletion, positively impacting spot prices and basis [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding the Canada-China trade relationship could lead to cautious purchasing behavior among domestic crushing plants, affecting future canola seed imports [2] - The high deposit rates may deter import traders, creating a risk of reduced canola seed supply in the domestic market [2] - The potential for increased imports from Australia and Russia may also influence canola oil prices in the future [1][2]