钢铁水泥业盈利缩减 “反内卷”需建立长效机制

Group 1: Market Overview - The supply-demand relationship is the main driver of commodity price fluctuations, with recent declines in demand leading to falling prices for steel, cement, and other commodities, resulting in industry profits hitting rock bottom [1][3] - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a consensus among many industry enterprises, focusing on production cuts and limits to protect profits [1][3] Group 2: Cement Industry Insights - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [2][3] - Major cement-producing provinces like Shandong and Sichuan are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with plans to stop production for 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [2] - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with a projected profit decline from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further down to 120 billion yuan in 2024 [6] Group 3: Steel Industry Insights - The steel market is also facing historical low prices, with the average price of rebar expected to drop to approximately 3506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [4][5] - Steel production enterprises are expected to implement hard production cuts, particularly in Tangshan, with a reduction of about 50,000 tons/day in iron production [5] - The steel industry's profits have significantly decreased, with profits dropping from 424 billion yuan in 2021 to 365.5 billion yuan in 2022, and further projected to be 564.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 291.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The "anti-involution" actions in the cement industry are crucial for addressing oversupply and preventing systemic collapse, with a focus on achieving dynamic balance between supply and demand [9] - Analysts suggest that the current weak demand in the cement sector may hinder optimistic market performance unless supply-side adjustments are effectively implemented [9] - Establishing a long-term mechanism for "anti-involution" is necessary, which includes legal measures for phasing out outdated capacities and encouraging high-end differentiation to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [11]