Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-08-13 05:51Core Viewpoint - The 2025 economic outlook is characterized by uncertainty, with potential for both economic contraction and structural differentiation globally [1] Group 1: External Environment - The comparison between Trump's potential re-election and the pandemic period suggests that private sector investment may slow down due to uncertainty, leading to a need for relatively loose fiscal policies from governments [1] - The current inflation is expected to be cost-push, with tariffs eroding purchasing power in the U.S., which may weaken consumption and subsequently impact China's external demand [1][2] - U.S. exports are projected to grow by 2.5% for the year, but there may be pressures on exports in the latter half of the year [2] Group 2: Internal Environment - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will address major macroeconomic issues, potentially leading to higher quality industrial development in China [1] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments are expected to maintain moderate to high growth, while real estate investment may continue to adjust under strict policies [2] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 3.8%, and retail sales growth is expected to be around 4.5% for the year [2] Group 3: Monetary and Financial Policy - Monetary policy is anticipated to enter an observation phase, with potential easing expected after August, leading to a social financing growth rate of about 8.1% for the year [3] - GDP growth is expected to hold around 5% despite tariff pressures [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - A bull market for Chinese equity assets is anticipated, with synchronization in economic and policy cycles among China, the U.S., and Europe expected to drive market performance [3][4] - Historical data indicates that synchronized economic cycles have led to significant gains in major indices, with average returns of 32.3% for the Shanghai Composite and 43.5% for the S&P 500 [4] - Key strategies for the second half of the year include increasing allocations to Hong Kong stocks, focusing on core assets, and targeting industries less affected by trade tensions [5]