方正富邦基金：军工板块回调是上车机会吗？

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing a correction, with a decline of 1.2% as of the report date, but has shown a positive trend with three consecutive monthly gains, marking the first time in three years that the military index has achieved this [1] Group 1: Performance and Trends - The military sector's revenue and profit growth have been declining since 2021, leading to a lackluster performance. However, recent earnings reports indicate a turning point for the sector, which is a key driver for the recent surge [1] - Among 120 listed military companies, 37 have disclosed their 2025 H1 performance forecasts, with 14 companies expecting positive year-on-year growth. Historical data shows that in a bull market, the military sector often outperforms the CSI 300 index [1] - From September 24, 2024, to August 11, 2025, the defense and military index is projected to rise by 43.12%, compared to a 24.12% increase in the CSI 300 index during the same period [1] Group 2: Short-term Catalysts - The upcoming 2025 military parade is expected to positively influence the military sector's performance. Historical trends show that the sector has benefited from similar events in the past, with significant returns observed during the 2015 military parade [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the military industry remains clear. The sector is expected to recover as demand increases and structural improvements in capacity take place. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing its final year, and the industry is poised for significant growth [5] - The long-term goals set for 2035 and 2050 provide a clear direction for the industry, with a focus on emerging fields such as drones, robotic dogs, large aircraft, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace [5]