滕泰：八成房企终将转型或退场，届时房价将真正企稳回升

Core Viewpoint - The trajectory of urbanization in countries like the UK, the US, and Taiwan indicates that once urbanization reaches a turning point, the number of real estate companies typically decreases by 80% to 90% compared to peak levels. Recent stabilization in Chinese housing prices may be temporary, and caution is advised as over 80% of real estate and construction companies are expected to exit the market in the future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Risks - The discussion of real estate risks encompasses four main types: operational risks for real estate companies, financial risks related to bank and trust company debts, risks to homeowners' rights, and macroeconomic risks stemming from decreased real estate investment and related consumption [2][3]. - The operational risk arises from continuous declines in housing prices, potentially leading to a wave of bankruptcies among real estate firms [2]. - Financial risks include the debt crises that may arise from the collapse of real estate companies, impacting banks and trust companies [3]. - Homeowners face risks if they purchase properties from companies on the verge of bankruptcy, which could lead to unfulfilled housing deliveries and social instability [3]. - Macroeconomic risks are linked to reduced real estate development investments and a decline in related consumer spending, which could result in insufficient overall demand [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has issued trillions of yuan in special bonds to mitigate real estate risks, focusing on ensuring housing delivery and preventing financial and macroeconomic risks rather than solely rescuing real estate companies [3][4]. - Historical patterns show that as urbanization slows, most real estate companies tend to either exit the market or transition into specialized property management firms, with a significant reduction in the number of active companies [3][4]. - The transition for over 80% of construction and urban investment companies is expected to be challenging, as many are burdened with significant debts and may face insolvency [4]. - The current transformation of real estate and construction companies in China is still in its early stages, and until excess supply is cleared, housing prices are unlikely to stabilize fully [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Housing Prices - Five key factors are identified as determinants of housing price trends: growth in disposable income, population and urbanization dynamics, land and real estate supply, financial conditions in the real estate sector, and asset allocation behaviors [5][6]. - An increase in residents' income supports housing price increases, while a decline does not [5]. - Population growth in urban areas typically leads to rising housing prices, whereas population decline can result in price drops [6]. - An oversupply of new and second-hand properties tends to drive prices down, while limited supply can lead to price recovery [6]. - Favorable financial conditions, such as low interest rates and down payment requirements, can stimulate housing price increases, while restrictive conditions can have the opposite effect [6]. - The overall housing market dynamics in China have evolved significantly over the past two decades, making it challenging for prices to maintain upward momentum [5]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Relying solely on fiscal measures to address real estate debt risks is unsustainable; a more market-oriented approach, such as significantly lowering interest rates, could reduce mortgage costs for buyers and financing costs for real estate companies [8][9]. - To achieve genuine stabilization and recovery in housing prices, policies should focus on increasing disposable income, promoting population growth, managing land supply, and reducing interest rates [9]. - Recent policy changes, such as lifting purchase restrictions in certain areas, may provide opportunities for market recovery, but comprehensive measures are needed to stimulate demand and support price stabilization [9].