丁酮：“深蹲起跳”后震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The butanone market has experienced a significant price increase, reaching a yearly high due to supply constraints and production cuts from major factories, despite a weakening demand from end-user industries [1][2][4]. Supply Dynamics - The butanone market saw a price surge from a low of 6683.33 yuan in mid-June to a high of 8566 yuan by mid-July, marking an increase of over 1800 yuan or 28.18% [1][2]. - Major factories have reduced production, leading to a notable decline in domestic output, which has prompted manufacturers to raise ex-factory prices [2][3]. - The ongoing maintenance and repair of butanone facilities are expected to further decrease production, with industry operating rates dropping to their lowest levels of the year [3][4]. Demand Factors - The downstream demand for butanone is currently weak, particularly in the adhesive sector, which accounts for over 30% of butanone consumption [5][6]. - The traditional off-peak season has resulted in lower production rates among smaller manufacturers, with inventory levels remaining moderate [5][6]. - Export competitiveness is hindered as the FOB price of butanone in China is around 1060 USD/ton, which is higher than prices in other countries, limiting export opportunities [5][6]. Market Outlook - The butanone market is expected to continue experiencing price support due to supply constraints, but the weak demand from end-user industries may limit further price increases [6].