特鲍博弈白热化 金银蓄势

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the mild increase in U.S. inflation for July has preserved the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, impacting the dollar and supporting precious metal prices [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1% [3]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged to 93.4%, which is expected to weaken the dollar's attractiveness and support precious metal prices [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump has pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut rates and threatened legal action, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advocates for a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - There are mixed views among officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and unemployment balance, which may create policy uncertainty [3]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals are expected to continue a volatile pattern in the short term, with COMEX gold likely to find support around $3,350 and trade near $3,400 [4]. - COMEX silver should be monitored for support at the $37 level, with potential opportunities remaining in the context of ongoing rate cut expectations [4].