青海环保事件需关注实际的影响 纯碱区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract reaching 1410.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.59% increase [1] Industry Summary - As of August 13, 2023, the soda ash production in China is showing mixed operational statuses: Henan Haohua Junhua's facility is running steadily with stable prices, while Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year facility is operating at about 70% capacity, and Shandong Haitai's 1.5 million tons/year facility has increased its load to around 70% [2] - Last week, the domestic soda ash production reached 744,600 tons, marking a 6.4% increase compared to the previous week [2] Market Sentiment - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 11,194 contracts compared to the previous trading day [3] - Insights from Zhengxin Futures indicate that the soda ash industry structure has not significantly improved, with supply remaining high and demand primarily driven by basic needs. The market is facing upward inventory pressure, making it difficult for fundamentals to provide adequate support. The market sentiment continues to influence price fluctuations, leading to a range-bound movement in soda ash prices [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures highlights the need to monitor the actual impact of environmental events in Qinghai, noting that market sentiment is currently more influential than fundamental changes. The industry continues to face inventory accumulation, with prices experiencing a downward adjustment. Despite some support from the photovoltaic sector, the industry is still in a significant loss phase, suggesting a continuation of capacity reduction trends. The market is expected to remain under pressure in the long term due to supply constraints and a weak market reality [4]