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星展银行:日本GDP增长可能继续保持疲软
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-13 07:03

Core Viewpoint - Japan's second-quarter GDP data is expected to show a stagnation in growth, with a projected annualized growth rate of 0.2%, just enough to offset the contraction in the first quarter [1]. Economic Indicators - The second-quarter GDP growth rate is anticipated to hover around 0% on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1]. - The annualized growth rate, after seasonal adjustment, is forecasted to rise modestly by 0.2% [1]. Export and Domestic Consumption - Export momentum has weakened, influenced by a decline in exports to the U.S. and sluggish overseas demand [1]. - Private consumption remains lackluster, as wage growth lags behind inflation [1]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The persistent weakness in GDP suggests that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates in the short term [1]. - Although a trade agreement with the U.S. may alleviate tariff uncertainties, the Bank of Japan is expected to wait for stronger wage recovery and stable inflation before normalizing its policy [1]. - The forecast for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the fourth quarter remains unchanged [1].