【财经分析】政策和出海双重催动 国产创新药或迎关键拐点

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with related ETFs reaching new highs, and analysts are optimistic about the sector's long-term investment value, particularly looking towards 2025 as a pivotal year for recovery in the pharmaceutical industry [1][2]. Policy Support - The Chinese government has released multiple favorable policies since 2025 to optimize drug procurement and support innovative drugs, marking a period of significant policy dividends for the innovative drug sector [2]. - Specific measures include 16 initiatives aimed at supporting high-quality development of innovative drugs, focusing on R&D support, integration with medical insurance, clinical application, and diversified payment capabilities [2]. - The establishment of a "newly listed drug initial pricing mechanism" has been confirmed, allowing high-quality innovative drugs to achieve returns that align with their high investment and risk levels [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of the initial pricing mechanism is expected to provide innovative drug manufacturers with greater pricing flexibility and a more efficient listing process, leading to faster cash flow returns for high-quality innovative drugs [3]. - Nearly 100 domestic innovative drugs are currently in the approval process, which will benefit from the new pricing mechanism upon approval [3]. Business Development (BD) as a Key Driver - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global has accelerated, with significant BD transactions occurring, including a $60 billion deal between 3SBio and Pfizer, and a potential $12.5 billion deal between Hengrui Medicine and GSK [4]. - In the first half of 2025, 50 BD projects were completed, with total disclosed transaction amounts exceeding $48.4 billion, setting a historical record for innovative drug exports [4][5]. Global Recognition and Future Outlook - The global market is increasingly recognizing the R&D capabilities of Chinese biopharmaceutical companies, with a notable increase in the number and value of BD transactions involving Chinese firms [5][6]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the innovative drug sector, highlighting that the current valuation of Chinese biotech companies is significantly lower than their U.S. counterparts, indicating a potential undervaluation and room for growth [6].