Market Outlook - The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook report indicates that global oil demand is projected to reach 103.7 million barrels per day in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 103.5 million barrels per day, and 104.9 million barrels per day in 2026, revised from 104.6 million barrels per day [1] - Global oil production is expected to be 105.4 million barrels per day in 2025, an increase from the prior estimate of 104.6 million barrels per day, and 106.4 million barrels per day in 2026, revised from 105.7 million barrels per day [1] - OPEC's monthly report suggests that global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, which is an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day from previous estimates, while the forecast for this year remains unchanged [1] Institutional Perspectives - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures notes that the oil market is stabilizing ahead of the Putin meeting, with optimistic expectations regarding the negotiation outcomes. Despite OPEC+'s actual production increase being less than expected, non-major producers continue to increase output, and the largest demand increment country is underperforming, maintaining a bearish outlook for fundamentals [2] - Donghai Futures assesses the implications of Trump's decision to extend the tariff truce with China and the potential impacts of the US-Russia summit. The truce period, originally set to expire on Tuesday, has been extended by 90 days, and lower-than-expected US inflation data further supports market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The market is currently focused on the upcoming US-Russia summit for any signs of easing sanctions against Russia, with oil prices continuing to exhibit a weak oscillating pattern [2]
基本面偏空预期不变 原油保持弱震荡格局
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-13 08:25