前7月社融破23万亿元，信贷“小月”数据波动原因何在？

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in July's credit data are attributed to seasonal factors, policy adjustments, and structural optimization, with a notable focus on the impact of local government bond replacements on loan growth [1][2][4]. Monetary Data Overview - As of the end of July 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2]. - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan at the end of July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2]. Credit Growth Analysis - The increase in social financing for the first seven months of 2025 reached 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3]. - The loan balance at the end of July was 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, indicating strong support for the real economy [6][8]. - The growth rate of loans, after adjusting for the impact of local government bond replacements, is close to 8%, which remains a robust level [5]. Structural Optimization of Credit - The structure of credit has been continuously optimized, with significant growth in inclusive small and micro loans, which reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year [8]. - Medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector amounted to 14.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, both of which are higher than the overall loan growth rate [8]. Policy Coordination - The macroeconomic policy has been more proactive, with a focus on coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to support economic recovery [9][10]. - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with a total of 13.3 trillion yuan issued in the first half of the year, including 7.89 trillion yuan in national bonds, which is a 36% increase year-on-year [9]. - The government department's leverage ratio has increased by 9 percentage points to 65.3%, while the leverage ratios of non-financial enterprises and households have remained relatively stable [10].