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中邮证券:首次覆盖歌华有线给予买入评级

Company Overview - Gohua Cable is a core operator of broadcasting networks in Beijing, focusing on the planning, construction, operation, and maintenance of the city's broadcasting network [1] - The company is a subsidiary of China Broadcasting Network, which is wholly owned by the State Council [1] - Gohua Cable is transitioning from a "cable transmission provider" to a "smart broadcasting service platform," integrating traditional cable with broadband and 5G services [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, Gohua Cable reported revenues of 2.314 billion and 456 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.92% and 13.95% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was -70 million yuan, while for Q1 2025, it was 34 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.68% and 470.15% [1] Industry Trends - The traditional television industry is experiencing moderate growth, with the total revenue of the broadcasting industry in 2024 reaching 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.34% [2] - The integration of broadcasting networks is nearing completion, transitioning to a unified structure, which provides opportunities for broadband and 5G business development [2] - The rural internet penetration rate in China is 65.6%, significantly lower than the national average, indicating ongoing infrastructure expansion opportunities [2] Strategic Initiatives - Gohua Cable is focusing on digital transformation in sectors such as hotels and elderly care, signing contracts with over 1,300 hotels and 214 elderly care institutions in 2024 [3] - The company is enhancing its broadband operations through bundled packages and is accelerating the implementation of 5G applications, particularly in low-latency scenarios [3] Shareholder Engagement - In February 2025, Gohua Cable launched a "Valuation Enhancement Plan" aimed at improving operational quality, exploring mergers and acquisitions, and stabilizing dividend returns [4] - This plan reflects the company's commitment to shareholder returns and aims to create a long-term value management mechanism [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue projections for Gohua Cable from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.230 billion, 2.254 billion, and 2.367 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -3.65%, +1.10%, and +5.00% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -15 million, 9 million, and 19 million yuan for the same period, with significant year-on-year growth rates [5] - The company is rated as a "buy" due to its ongoing efforts in 5G and broadband business development and the implementation of the Valuation Enhancement Plan [5]