详解美国7月CPI背后的关税阴影，“消费者还将看到价格进一步上涨”

Group 1: Inflation Data - The core CPI in the US rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking the largest increase since January [1] - The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with falling gasoline prices helping to moderate overall inflation, but rising prices for other goods indicate the impact of tariffs [1][3] - Excluding food and energy, the prices of major commodities rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month in July [3] Group 2: Price Increases in Specific Sectors - Shoe prices surged by 1.4% in July, the highest monthly increase in over four years, following a 0.7% rise in June [3] - Furniture and bedding prices increased by 0.9% in July, while outdoor equipment prices rose by 2.2%, the highest level in over two years [3] - Prices for toys saw a slight increase of 0.2% in July after larger increases in previous months [5] Group 3: Tariff Impact on Consumer Prices - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant price increases for clothing and textiles, with estimates suggesting a 40% rise in shoe prices and a 38% rise in clothing prices by 2025 [3] - The average tariff rate in the US is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest since 1935, with expectations that it could exceed 18% [7] - Economists predict that the overall inflation rate in the US will rise to around 3.5% by the end of the year [6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be gradual rather than sudden, leading to a slow decline in purchasing power [8] - The overall effect of tariffs on prices may be more of a one-time adjustment rather than a sustained increase [9] - Financial markets have shown sensitivity to economic growth and inflation data, with recent weak labor market data contributing to market reactions [10]