Group 1: Monetary Data Overview - As of the end of July 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [1] - The net fund injection in the first seven months totaled 465.1 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Social Financing and Loan Dynamics - By the end of July 2025, the total social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [1] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 264.79 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [1] - The cumulative increase in social financing for January to July 2025 was 23.99 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 5.12 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Seasonal Loan Trends - July is traditionally a "small month" for credit, influenced by the end-of-June business assessment period for banks, which often leads to a push for credit growth in June [2] - The fluctuation in credit data during June and July is linked to financial institutions' reporting schedules and the settlement periods for businesses [2] - Historical data shows that manufacturing and construction PMIs in July are typically lower than in June, indicating seasonal trends in loan issuance [2] Group 4: M1-M2 Scissor Difference - The difference in growth rates between M1 and M2 has narrowed significantly, with a current gap of 3.2% [4] - This narrowing indicates an increase in the liquidity and efficiency of funds, aligning with improved market confidence and economic activity [4] Group 5: Impact of Local Government Debt Replacement - Since November 2024, nearly 4 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts have been issued [3] - This debt replacement converts high-interest short-term debts into low-interest long-term debts, which may temporarily lower loan growth rates [3] - Long-term, this process is expected to alleviate local debt risks and enhance financial stability, allowing more credit resources to flow into the real economy [3] Group 6: Observing Financial Metrics - To accurately assess financial totals, it is essential to consider broader indicators like social financing scale and M2, rather than solely focusing on loans [5] - The diversification of corporate financing channels and the rapid expansion of government bond issuance have made loans a less comprehensive indicator of financial support for the real economy [5] Group 7: Credit Supply and Demand - Loan interest rates have remained low for an extended period, indicating a generally ample supply of credit resources [7] - Recent policies have improved the transparency of financing costs for enterprises, contributing to a reduction in financing burdens [7] - As of July, the average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down about 45 basis points from the previous year, while new personal housing loans averaged around 3.1%, a decrease of about 30 basis points [7]
7月金融数据：M1-M2剪刀差明显收窄 季节等因素信贷数据略波动
Feng Huang Wang·2025-08-13 10:42