兴业证券：本轮AI行情呈现“轮动式新高”的格局

Core Viewpoint - The current AI market trend shows significant differences compared to the beginning of the year, with market consensus no longer concentrated on a few strong sectors, indicating a healthier and more sustainable market environment [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since June, the AI sector has become one of the strongest themes in the market's upward movement, but unlike the earlier AI trend that quickly entered an "overheated" zone, current indicators such as rolling returns, trading volume share, and congestion levels do not signal overheating [2][7]. - The current AI trend reflects new characteristics, with continuous inflow of incremental capital exploring underpriced niche areas, resulting in a "rotating new high" pattern characterized by "external large rotation" and "internal small rotation" [1][7]. Group 2: External and Internal Rotation - The "external large rotation" indicates that the current AI sector is rotating with other main market themes, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and military industries, unlike the earlier trend where AI was the sole main theme. This has prevented the AI sector from accumulating excessive short-term excess returns and attracting too much liquidity, contributing to a healthier and more sustainable overall market trend [7][10]. - The "internal small rotation" since July has led to a rising pattern within the AI sector. The earlier AI trend, while expanding to more mid and downstream sectors, concentrated market consensus on a few strong sectors, leading to a quick "overheated" state. In contrast, the current trend has expanded from the North American computing power chain to domestic computing power and mid-to-low-end applications, using internal rotation and high-low switching to alleviate short-term overheating sentiments, ultimately achieving new highs for the sector [10].