美国7月关税收入创新高，到底是谁在埋单？对美国人和美国经济来说意味着什么

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that U.S. tariff revenue has reached a historical high, accounting for 3.1% of federal revenue, with July's tariff income soaring to $28 billion, a 273% increase year-over-year, and total fiscal year revenue reaching $142 billion [1][4] - The current tariff revenue growth is projected to continue, with estimates suggesting it could exceed $300 billion in the fiscal year 2025, driven by policies such as the "equal tariff rate" and ongoing investigations under Section 232 [4][7] - The impact of tariffs on consumers is significant, with an average effective tariff rate of 18.6%, leading to a projected short-term price increase of 1.8%, equating to a reduction of approximately $2,400 in annual income per household [5][6] Group 2 - The sustainability of the current tariff revenue model is questioned, as rising import prices may reduce disposable income and demand for imported goods, potentially leading to a decrease in tariff revenue [2][5] - There is a concern that the increase in tariff revenue may not be sufficient to address the national debt, which is nearing $37 trillion, and the projected fiscal deficit over the next decade is significantly higher than anticipated tariff revenues [7][8] - Legal challenges to the tariff policies could further impact revenue, as unfavorable court rulings may limit the government's ability to implement tariffs and could require refunds of previously collected tariffs [8]