全球人口快速老龄化，如何做到老有所养

Global Aging Trends - The global population is rapidly aging, with the proportion of people aged 65 and older reaching 10% in 2023, up from 5% in 1960. It is projected to reach 14.3% by 2040 and 21% by the mid to late 21st century [2][3] - The total fertility rate has declined significantly from 4.7 in 1960 to 2.2 in 2023, with over 55% of countries expected to have a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 by 2024 [2] Economic Challenges of Aging - The aging population leads to increased financial burdens, particularly in developed countries where the elderly dependency ratio is high, such as Japan at 50% and Germany over 30% in 2023 [3][4] - In contrast, China's aging process is accelerating due to a sharp decline in fertility rates, with projections indicating that its elderly dependency ratio will approach that of developed countries within the next 5 to 10 years [3][4] Income and Wealth Issues for the Elderly - The income of individuals typically peaks in middle age and declines sharply upon retirement, with median income for those aged 65 and older in the U.S. at $26,000, about 40% of their working income [4][5] - Many elderly individuals lack sufficient retirement savings, with median retirement savings in the U.S. at $87,000, which is significantly below ideal retirement savings targets [5][6] Pension System Structures - The World Bank proposed a three-pillar pension system: a mandatory public pension (first pillar), occupational pensions (second pillar), and voluntary personal pensions (third pillar) [8][9] - Countries have developed varying pension systems based on their specific circumstances, with some relying heavily on public pensions while others emphasize private and occupational pensions [9][10] Fiscal Pressures and Sustainability - High dependency on public pensions creates fiscal pressures, as seen in France where public pension spending reached 13.6% of GDP in 2022, leading to projected deficits starting in 2023 [11][12] - The U.S. has a more market-driven approach, with public pensions comprising only 6.2% of total pension funds, while private pensions dominate [12][13] Recommendations for Pension System Improvement - There is a need to encourage the development of the second and third pillars of the pension system in China, utilizing tax incentives to increase participation in occupational and personal pensions [19] - Government subsidies should be targeted and efficient, focusing on low-income and vulnerable groups to avoid excessive welfare burdens [19]