“股债双牛”罕见同框 机构：市场将对“跷跷板效应”逐步“脱敏”

Core Viewpoint - The equity market has shown significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8-day winning streak, while the bond market has also performed well, indicating a new trend of "dual bull" in both markets [1][2][4]. Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the high point from October 8 of the previous year, reaching a nearly 4-year high [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.15 trillion yuan, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a comprehensive increase in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.10% to 118.270 yuan, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.02% to 108.435 yuan [2]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market experienced a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.75 basis points to 1.72% [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is becoming desensitized to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating a potential return to fundamental factors driving both equity and bond markets [4][6]. - Future expectations indicate that the 10-year government bond yield may stabilize around 1.65%-1.70% as new bonds are issued, leading to a revaluation of interest rate bonds [4]. - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests a "dual bull" market, with equity investments focusing on structural opportunities in the new economy, while the bond market is characterized by a low-growth, low-inflation, and low-interest-rate environment [6].