中国外汇投资研究院：高通胀下英国央行降息冲动与观望压力并存

Group 1 - The Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the lowest level in over two years, amidst a divided vote within the Monetary Policy Committee [1][2] - The split decision reflects fundamental differences in economic outlook, highlighting a struggle between prioritizing inflation control and economic growth [2][3] - The current economic indicators show a slowdown in GDP growth, rising unemployment, and weak retail sales, indicating pressure on households, while some sectors like high-end manufacturing and green energy remain resilient [3][4] Group 2 - The decision to lower interest rates comes with risks, as maintaining high rates could exacerbate economic decline and increase unemployment, while premature easing could lead to currency depreciation and imported inflation [2][3] - The divergence in global monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive stance and the European Central Bank signaling slight easing, places the Bank of England in a challenging position regarding capital flows and currency valuation [3][4] - Future policy decisions are expected to be data-dependent and characterized by short-cycle adjustments rather than a straightforward move towards easing, leading to prolonged uncertainty in the market [4]