“股债跷跷板”效应持续扰动 债市中期逻辑关注基本面

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with the 10-year government bond yield showing a slight decline after two days of increase, currently at 1.72% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown a certain profit effect, leading some investors to shift their focus towards equities since July, which has resulted in a natural outflow of funds from the bond market to the stock market [2] - The current 10-year government bond yield is at 1.73%, up 5.2 basis points from the end of last year, indicating a trend where investors favor equities over bonds [2] - The cross-market flow of funds is a key reason why stock market performance is becoming an important reference for bond market pricing [3] Group 2: Long-term Pricing Factors - In the long term, the bond market is expected to return to pricing based on fundamental factors rather than following stock market trends, as historical data shows limited correlation between the 10-year government bond yield and the CSI 300 index [4] - The Pearson correlation coefficient between the 10-year government bond yield and nominal GDP growth is 0.56, and with the DR007 interest rate, it is 0.83, indicating that bond yields are more sensitive to economic conditions and monetary policy changes [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Three core variables are showing signs of marginal change: the probability of social financing growth peaking is increasing, the economic fundamentals are showing signs of marginal pressure, and the likelihood of a significant tightening of the funding environment is low [5] - The PMI data for July indicates a further decline below the growth line, confirming expectations of weakening economic momentum in the second half of the year [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategy - As various event-driven impacts are gradually digested, the focus of bond market trading is expected to shift back to assessments of fundamental and funding conditions [6] - Analysts suggest maintaining a neutral stance in the short term while paying attention to yield range fluctuations, as supportive factors for the bond market are accumulating [6] - The market is expected to anticipate liquidity easing in the second half of the year, with August to September being a critical observation window for the bond market [6]