国际能源署预测今明两年全球石油供应增速远超需求

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in 2025 and 2026, leading to further market imbalance [1] Supply Summary - Eight major oil-producing countries from OPEC and non-OPEC have decided to increase production again in September, with expected global oil supply growth of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, an increase of 370,000 bpd from last month's estimate [1] - For 2026, the supply growth is projected at 1.9 million bpd, which is an increase of 620,000 bpd from the previous estimate [1] Demand Summary - Due to weak demand from major economies and ongoing consumer confidence issues, a strong rebound in global oil demand is unlikely in the near term [1] - The IEA estimates that global oil demand growth will be 680,000 bpd in 2025, a downward revision of 20,000 bpd from last month's estimate [1] - For 2026, the demand growth is projected at 700,000 bpd [1] - Since the beginning of this year, the forecast for global oil demand growth has been revised downwards by a total of 350,000 bpd [1]