美国7月关税收入创新高 到底是谁在埋单？对美国人和美国经济来说意味着什么

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff revenue reached a historic high of $28 billion in July, marking a 273% increase year-over-year, with total revenue for the fiscal year reaching $142 billion [1] - The current tariff revenue accounts for 3.1% of total federal revenue, potentially rising to over 5% under existing policies, a level not seen since World War II [1] - The effective average tariff rate for U.S. consumers has hit 18.6%, the highest since 1933, leading to a projected short-term price increase of 1.8% for consumers [4] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff rate" could generate an additional $1.3 trillion in revenue during its term, potentially reaching $2.8 trillion by 2034 [3] - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, there are concerns about its sustainability, as rising import prices may reduce disposable income and demand for imported goods [3][6] - The increase in tariffs has led to a significant burden on consumers, with estimates suggesting a reduction in household income by approximately $2,400 annually due to rising prices [4] Consumer Price Effects - The clothing and textile sectors are particularly affected, with prices for shoes and clothing expected to rise by 39% and 37% respectively in the short term [4] - A recent survey indicated that only 25% of importers are willing to absorb tariff costs, with many manufacturers planning to pass these costs onto consumers [5] - Goldman Sachs estimates that as of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of tariff-related price increases, but this is expected to shift, with consumers potentially bearing 67% of the costs by October [5] Fiscal Challenges - Despite the surge in tariff revenue, it remains insufficient to address the U.S. national debt, which is nearing $37 trillion [6] - The recently passed "Inflation Reduction Act" is projected to incur a cost of $3.4 trillion over the next decade, far exceeding anticipated tariff revenues [6] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts a cumulative fiscal deficit of $21.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly overshadowing expected tariff revenue [6] Legal and Policy Challenges - The Trump administration's tariff policies are facing legal challenges, which could significantly reduce future tariff revenue and potentially require refunds of previously collected tariffs [7]