时隔10个月 沪指攻克3674点！券商首席：行情不止于此

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has officially broken through the previous high of 3674 points set during the "924" rally, indicating a significant market uptrend and increased trading volume, surpassing 2 trillion yuan for the first time in recent periods [1][3]. Market Analysis - The current market rally is characterized by a steady "slow bull" trend, contrasting with the rapid gains seen during the "924" period. Analysts attribute this to a combination of liquidity, fundamental improvements, and supportive policies [4][6]. - The liquidity environment is notably abundant, with margin financing balances returning to over 2 trillion yuan, marking the highest level since May 2015. Long-term funds, such as insurance capital, are increasingly entering the market [4][5]. - The fundamental economic outlook is improving, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.3% in the first half of 2025, and a transition in inventory cycles indicating a shift from active to passive destocking [4][5]. Sector Performance - The leading sectors driving the current market rally differ from those during the "924" period. The top-performing sectors since June include telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, while consumer sectors like food and beverage have lagged [7][8][12]. - The consumer sector, which previously led the market, is currently underperforming, with analysts noting a significant decline in consumer spending and sentiment [9][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a continued "slow bull" market, with opportunities for growth in sectors such as defense, pharmaceuticals, and AI technologies. The market is expected to remain resilient due to supportive policies and a favorable liquidity environment [13][15]. - Some analysts project that the Shanghai Composite Index could reach between 3800 and 4000 points within the year, indicating a positive outlook for the market [13].