TOST Skyrockets 78% in a Year: How Should You Play the Stock?

Core Insights - Toast, Inc. (TOST) shares have increased by 78% over the past year, significantly outperforming the Internet Software market and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector, which grew by 43.6% and 25.4% respectively [1][8] - The company is a leading provider of software-as-a-service (SaaS) and hardware solutions tailored for the restaurant market [1] Financial Performance - In the second quarter, TOST reported revenues of $1.55 billion, marking a nearly 25% increase and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1% [5][8] - The annualized recurring run-rate (ARR) rose by 31% to $1.9 billion [5] - TOST added a record 8,500 net new locations, bringing the total to 148,000, which is a 24% year-over-year increase [6][8] - The company anticipates a 29% growth in fintech and subscription gross profit for 2025, up from an earlier estimate of 26% [10] Market Expansion and Product Innovation - TOST is expanding its presence in the U.S. SMB restaurant market and has ventured into Australia, its fourth international market [6][7] - The launch of Toast Go 3 Handheld, featuring ToastIQ, aims to enhance the ordering and payment process for restaurant staff [9] - The company has surpassed 10,000 live locations across various segments, indicating strong traction among large QSR brands [7] Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The restaurant industry faces challenges such as consumer spending fluctuations, labor inflation, and supply chain volatility, which could impact TOST's performance [11] - A decline in gross payment volume (GPV) per location poses a risk, despite overall GPV increasing by 23% year-over-year to $50 billion [12] - Competitive pressures from companies like Block, Oracle, and Lightspeed could limit TOST's growth potential [16][18] Valuation Concerns - TOST's stock is considered to have a stretched valuation, with a price/book multiple of 12.07X compared to the industry's 6.94X [19][20] - The company is currently rated with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting caution for new investors [25]