Should You Stay Invested in or Sell Nebius Stock Post Q2 Earnings?

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) stock has increased by 36.7% following the release of its strong Q2 2025 earnings on August 7, with revenues rising 625% year-over-year to $105.1 million, driven by robust performance in its core business and effective execution by the TripleTen team [1][3][8] Revenue Growth - AI cloud infrastructure revenues have grown over nine times year-over-year, fueled by demand for copper GPUs and near-peak GPU utilization, with the company achieving positive EBITDA in its core AI infrastructure business earlier than anticipated [3][8] - The annualized run rate (ARR) revenue guidance has been raised from a previous range of $750 million to $1 billion to a new range of $900 million to $1.1 billion, reflecting the strength of its contracted pipeline and near-term visibility [3][6] Strategic Expansion - Nebius is expanding its data center footprint and GPU deployments, aiming to secure 220 megawatts of connected power and planning to build over 1 gigawatt of power capacity by 2026, which positions the company for sustained growth in the AI compute boom [7][9] - The company has expanded its customer roster to include notable clients such as Cloudflare and Shopify, as well as fast-growing AI startups [6][9] Competitive Landscape - Despite the positive outlook, Nebius faces significant challenges, including intense competition in the AI cloud infrastructure market from major players like Amazon, Microsoft, and smaller companies like CoreWeave, which reported 207% year-over-year revenue growth [13][14] - The competitive environment may lead to pricing pressure and higher customer acquisition costs for Nebius [14][20] Financial Considerations - Nebius has reaffirmed its $2 billion capital expenditure guidance for 2025, which poses a risk if revenue growth does not keep pace with such high capital intensity [12][20] - The company has deconsolidated Toloka, which will reduce projected 2025 revenues by $50-$70 million, with expected group revenues now between $450 million to $630 million [15][20] Valuation and Market Position - Nebius's valuation appears stretched, indicated by a Value Score of F, and its Price/Book ratio of 4.7X is higher than the Internet Software Services industry's ratio of 4.21X, suggesting more risk than opportunity [16][18] - Despite the challenges, the impressive Q2 results position Nebius as an exciting player in the AI infrastructure space, with a promising growth trajectory [19][20]