Will Royal Caribbean's Fleet Growth Anchor Its 2025 Demand Strategy?

Core Insights - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is expanding its capacity through a steady pipeline of new ships, aiming to strengthen demand in 2025 [1] - The company's strategy focuses on moderate capacity growth to drive pricing power, attract new guests, and support yield expansion [1] Capacity and Growth - In Q2 2025, RCL's capacity increased by 6% year over year, supported by new ships and improvements in the existing fleet [2] - Net yield growth of 5.2% was evenly split between new hardware and the current portfolio, with new ships generating strong pricing and load factors [2] - The delivery of Star of the Seas and the launch of Celebrity Xcel are expected to boost Q4 capacity by 10% year over year [3] Future Plans - RCL plans to introduce seven new ships over the next few years, including Legend of the Seas in 2026 and Icon 4 in 2027, aimed at enhancing global reach and diversifying offerings [4] - The fleet growth is part of a broader demand strategy supported by exclusive destinations, digital engagement, and loyalty programs [5] Competitive Landscape - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is pursuing a fleet growth strategy with a projected 29.7% gross capacity expansion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of about 4% from 2023 [6] - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is advancing its fleet strategy through newbuilds and refurbishments, with plans for new ships in 2027 and 2028 [7] Financial Performance - RCL shares have gained 28.2% in the past three months, outperforming the industry's growth of 6.7% [8] - RCL trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.47x, significantly higher than the industry's average of 2.33x [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RCL's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year increases of 32.2% and 17.7%, respectively [12]