关税“乌龙”激起千层浪 国际金价“上蹿下跳”

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been driven by concerns over potential tariffs on gold bars imported from Switzerland, which is a major refining center for gold [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Gold Market - A report indicated that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection classified 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under a higher tariff code, raising fears of increased costs for imports from Switzerland [2][3] - The announcement led to a significant spike in gold futures prices, with COMEX gold reaching $3534.10 per ounce on August 8, before a subsequent clarification from the White House caused prices to drop [3][4] - The potential imposition of tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, as Switzerland plays a crucial role in refining and trading gold [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the White House's clarification that gold would not be subject to tariffs, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with COMEX futures falling over 2% to below $3400 per ounce [4][5] - The gold market has been in a consolidation phase, with London spot gold showing minimal fluctuations from May to July, indicating a period of adjustment [5][6] - Analysts suggest that short-term gold prices may oscillate between $3300 and $3500 per ounce, while medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The resolution of the tariff concerns is expected to stabilize market sentiment, allowing focus to shift back to fundamental factors such as the U.S. dollar's performance and global economic conditions [6] - Analysts believe that gold prices are likely to remain in an upward trend due to persistent demand for safe-haven assets amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6] - Predictions indicate that gold could reach a target price of $3500 per ounce under baseline scenarios, with potential for further increases to $3800 per ounce if geopolitical or economic conditions worsen [5][6]