法国经济竞争力遭受关税重创

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreements between Europe and the U.S. have not mitigated the damaging impacts of U.S. tariffs, leading to a significant increase in France's trade deficit and raising concerns about the competitiveness of French exports [1][2]. Trade Deficit and Economic Impact - In June, France's trade deficit expanded to approximately 7.7 billion euros, with imports rising by 400 million euros to 57.6 billion euros and exports increasing by 300 million euros to 49.9 billion euros [1]. - For the first half of 2025, France's cumulative trade deficit reached 43 billion euros, an increase of about 4.4 billion euros compared to the second half of 2024 [1]. - The trade deficit for the second quarter of 2025 was 22.9 billion euros, widening by approximately 2.8 billion euros from the first quarter [1]. Structural Issues in Trade Agreements - The framework agreement between the U.S. and Europe reveals significant structural differences, particularly regarding tariff exemptions, with the U.S. interpreting a 15% tariff as broadly applicable to European goods, while Europe seeks exemptions for key industries [2]. - French officials emphasize the need to advocate for exemptions beyond the aviation sector, including pharmaceuticals and food processing [2]. Agriculture and Food Sector Concerns - French agricultural products, including wine and cheese, are excluded from tariff exemptions, with potential additional tariffs of 800 million euros if wine and spirits do not receive exemptions [3]. - The U.S. demands simplification of health certifications for meat and dairy, which could impact food safety standards in France and Europe [3]. Digital Services and Technology - The U.S. claims that Europe has committed to exempting American companies from certain taxes, while Europe has only stated it will coordinate further [3]. - France views the digital services sector as a critical area for exerting pressure on the U.S. and aims to implement a digital tax on American tech giants [3]. Military and Energy Procurement - The U.S. has indicated that Europe will significantly purchase American military equipment by 2026, but European officials argue that military procurement was never formally on the agenda [4]. - France is pushing for exemptions in energy and pharmaceuticals to protect domestic jobs and industries, criticizing the reliance on U.S. fossil fuels [4]. France's Position and Strategy - France expresses dissatisfaction with compromises made in negotiations with the U.S. and vows to maintain its competitiveness through "strategic autonomy" [5]. - French officials argue that the U.S. tariffs will lead to a "lose-lose" situation, affecting both American consumers and exports [5]. - The French government aims to strengthen its position in trade negotiations by focusing on collective unity within the EU and addressing structural imbalances in service trade [6]. Future Coordination and Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that France should enhance coordination in trade strategy, avoid unilateral actions, and utilize "anti-coercion tools" against U.S. threats [6]. - Policy recommendations include targeted subsidies, diversifying export markets, and increasing investments in innovation and green development to counteract U.S. tariff impacts [6].