遭遇多重困难，马斯克推迟登陆火星计划

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX's Mars mission timeline has been significantly revised, with the likelihood of launching the "Starship" to Mars in 2026 now deemed very low, pushing the potential launch window to between 2028 and 2030 [1][2] Group 1: Mission Timeline and Goals - Elon Musk has acknowledged that there is now only a "small chance" of launching a spacecraft to Mars by the end of 2026, with the next optimal launch window occurring in late 2024 [2] - The revised timeline suggests that the first uncrewed Mars mission could occur in approximately 3.5 years, with a crewed mission following in about 5.5 years, indicating a four-year delay from the original plan [2][3] Group 2: Technical Challenges - SpaceX has faced numerous technical setbacks with the "Starship," which is designed to be fully reusable and capable of carrying significant payloads for interstellar travel, but has only achieved limited success in testing [3] - The recent failures in the "Starship" test flights have necessitated substantial design modifications, delaying critical tests for in-orbit refueling technology essential for Mars travel [3][4] Group 3: Long-term Vision - SpaceX aims to launch between 1,000 and 2,000 "Starship" spacecraft during each launch window, with a goal of sending approximately 1 million tons of supplies to Mars to establish a self-sustaining "Mars civilization" [4] - The company must also address the challenges of long-duration space travel for astronauts, including the effects of cosmic radiation and the psychological impacts of isolation in a confined environment [4]