日本央行内部关于通胀指标的争议加剧 或为政策转向铺路

Core Viewpoint - There is increasing internal pressure within the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to abandon the vague "potential inflation" indicator, reflecting dissatisfaction with current monetary policy communication and a call for a more hawkish stance to address potential second-round price effects [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation Indicators - The BOJ Governor, Kazuo Ueda, defends the slow pace of interest rate hikes, stating that "potential inflation," based on domestic demand and wage growth, has not yet reached the BOJ's 2% target [1]. - The lack of a clear single measurement for "potential inflation" has made it a target for criticism, despite overall and core inflation rates exceeding the target for several years [1]. - Minutes from the July policy meeting revealed internal disagreements, with one member suggesting a shift in communication focus from "potential inflation" to actual price changes and inflation expectations [1]. Group 2: Economic Committee Concerns - Members of Japan's highest economic council have expressed concerns that the BOJ may be overly optimistic, especially as public worries about persistent inflation grow [2]. - In June, Japan's core consumer inflation rose by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, with food prices surging by 8.2%, prompting a revision of core inflation expectations [2]. - Senior analyst Naomi Muramatsu believes the BOJ may be preparing to gradually phase out the "potential inflation" concept in the coming months, potentially paving the way for future interest rate hikes [2].