方正富邦基金：沪指突破924新高 A股慢牛行情来了？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is showing strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a three-year high, driven by sectors such as hardware, non-ferrous metals, media entertainment, and defense [1][2]. Economic Data Recovery - The manufacturing PMI has shown continuous improvement, indicating a recovery in economic data, with the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Although July's PPI data showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the main contributors were energy and construction materials, with expectations for a significant recovery starting in September [3]. Policy Incentives - Recent fiscal policies include a 1% annual subsidy on personal consumption loans, aimed at stimulating demand for major consumer goods [4]. - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to lead to a moderate price recovery, enhancing product innovation and reducing reliance on local subsidies [4]. - Supportive policies for the robotics industry are being implemented, with various subsidies expected to accelerate the development of intelligent robotics [4]. Market Sentiment - The recent announcement of a 90-day suspension of tariff increases by the US and China has alleviated market concerns, contributing positively to market sentiment [5]. Investment Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by leveraged funds and abundant liquidity, with optimism for the second half of the year and beyond [6]. - Three main investment themes are identified: new productive forces, overseas expansion, and cost-effective consumption [6][7]. - New productive forces are seen as the core engine for future economic growth, particularly in AI and robotics [6]. - Overseas expansion is supported by China's manufacturing advantages, despite global challenges [6]. - Cost-effective consumption is anticipated to shift consumer preferences towards value-driven purchases as income expectations improve [7].